The Hampton Letter
 

 
A place for investors to swap investment thoughts.
 
 
   
 
Friday, February 13, 2004
 
What is happening at Western Wireless (WWCA)? Why hasn't this stock been a stand out in momentum screens. Up 500% in about a year. And, the PE is ONLY just under 1500! What is this? Up on high volume on a down day, today. Saying "I,m not done yet".
American Capital Strategies (ACAS) is one I actually own that is up today. It just keeps going up and kicking out that fat dividend. Well, not so fat as it was before it went up. Down to JUST 8% from over 10% since it has gone up. And, up again today!
 
I was looking at some of the REITS. Not too bad. Since right after the market high in 2000 most have at least more than doubled and some have tripled. All while paying a 5 to7% dividends. Many of their PE's have crept up over 20. Hard to believe.
But what about Cardinal Health (CAH), the HMO? Isn't it now making a near perfect handle off of a near perfect cup??
 
There is an interesting article on Yahoo taken from Smart Money. Why people stick with stocks then they (we) really can see that they aren't doing well. Answer is people tend to underestimate the risks of things they like (tobacco and bycycles as examples) and overestimate the risks of things that they don't like (nuclear power is given). Not said is why we like certain things and don't like others. Could it be a combination of advertising for things that we like and propaganda for things we don't like? Of course sex and wine don't need either advertising or propaganda, but get plenty of both.

Tuesday, February 10, 2004
 
Starting to take some profits due to shrinking volume coupled with down days. Sold ITXC today to lock in profit.
Anyone ever looked into using Louis Navellier's stuff - mpt review and blue chip growth? It lends itself to using and tracking data in excel spreadsheet to narrow down stock picking strategies.
"The urge to save humanity is almost always a false face for the urge to rule it." Henry Louis Mencken (1880 - 1956)

Monday, February 09, 2004
 
I didn't mean to buy ATAH. It has had a hell of a run in the last year and is in a horrible business group. It does bear watching. For the first time in years it has a sporting EPS instead of a loss, and is growing about 3X the rate of other air carriers.
 
Oh yes a PS here, for shorts take a look at grocery stores. After battling to the near death with WalMart, their unions have helped them the rest of the way down. Like Safeway (SWY). Down almost 3% today. A really tough business.
May a thousand locusts find their way into your tent!
 
Continuing on with the air carriers, today most finished down a little, but little ATAH was UP over 7%. And they pay a 2% dividend. Why would such a teeny company pay a dividend? They also recently got the contract for all deicing equipment and materials for the entire US Air Force! But, that was previously known.
And HERE is the question of the day!!! If Delta Air Lines finished at even to a little down, why is their in the money PUT option (DALOU.X) down almost 17%. There must be a good explaination, but I can't think of any. You can buy these options for a quarter apeice. I guess so if they go down when the stock does, who would want them.
 
Well, I hope that you didn't short SOME airlines today. Air couriers are the 3rd best group this AM. BUT that group includes freighters and Fedex is leading the pack, followed by Atlas. AND it is companies like China Southern (ZNH) (up pver 6%), Frontier (FRNT) (up over3%), Jet Blue (JBLU), and one I like, little ATA Holdings (ATAH) (only does custom runs for tour operators and US military) (up over2%). These are the guys putting it to the Deltas and Americans. Even Southwest and Ryan are down today. It is a tough business if you are one of the old line unionized companies.

Sunday, February 08, 2004
 
I am not sure you would want to short a stock paying as high a dividend as BMY. Wouldn't you think that the airlines are going down, more. I think US Air is already in bankrupcy. So's United I think. Maybe Delta or Northwest.

 

 
   
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