The Hampton Letter
 

 
A place for investors to swap investment thoughts.
 
 
   
 
Friday, May 16, 2003
 
A company I really like based solely on what they do, is SU. They are into Canadian oil shale. They can extract oil from shale and sell it for about $10 a barrel. I don' t know about their chart, but they may have had a few up days lately. It seems to me to be a semi-domestic source of an increasingly scarace commodity.

Thursday, May 15, 2003
 
Welcome Tom aboard. ACAS has one of the strangest patterns I have ever seen. Over the last six months it has experienced massive one day sell-offs. The last time was yesterday. Normally a massive sell-off clearly marks the start of a down turn. In the case of ACAS it has three times had an off the chart volume down day followed by a several weeks to a month or two of up-draft. Now that is weird!! Tom may be on to something here. Could the sell-offs be related to dividend payouts?
 
This market is overdue for a correction. Very healthy, but possibly somewhat painful. I like ACAS long term. Nice business, well run, high dividend, great earnings growth, 16 insider buys, what's not to like. Maybe that all of the full service brokerage houses analysts love it. Hello, I see Smith Barney just downgraded. Maybe hope after all. They must have dumped theirs.

Wednesday, May 14, 2003
 
O.K., with the gambling stock profits burning a hole in my pocket, I have settled on old Lucent Technology (LU). I bought in today at about $2.15 believing that it has made a real bottom and is now building up for a long, slow recovery. Set a stop around 1.75 to 1.80. The chart has a firm double bottom, a very nice break away gap on significant volume, after tracing out a very pretty little deep sauser pattern since Feburary, with a cup formation preceeding it in December and January. A sauser pattern usually has a handle on the breakout. This one could be very dangerous because of the gap. LU ran up over 10% in a day, then another near ten percent on the next day forming the gap and actual breakout. I think the original move for the breakout is from that first big day starting at $1.80 not from the $2.00 sauser top on day two of the move. Therefore, the pull back to the $1.80 point is not out of the question. That represents a 15% plus drop before you see support and a failed breakout would thus not be identifiable until you are down 20% or more. That is a pretty stiff potential loss. On the other hand, if LU can manage just a few more days of strength, it could avoid the pullback all together. Allowing a breakeven stop loss order to be set with in a week or so. The potential recovery is a ten bagger or better. Think I'll take a chance.

Monday, May 12, 2003
 
Thanks. It will probably break later this year but not a good long term stock as are most of the wireless stocks.

Joke:

The investigation of Martha Stewart continues. Her recipe for chicken casserole is quite efficient.
First you boil the chicken in water. And then you dump the stock.

 

 
   
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