The Hampton Letter
 

 
A place for investors to swap investment thoughts.
 
 
   
 
Saturday, February 07, 2004
 
Time for some review. I have been stopped out of four (4) stocks in the last week. The market must be pulling back. Lost the following GSOL, STXN, ITXC, MTMD - all with respectable profits of 10 to 50%, not bad for an average hold of forty days. At that rate I could stay in cash and still beat most mutual funds. But, I am thinking is this a temporary ceiling? Is there more down side? The recoup of Friday was on very modest volume. I am scared. The Worden Brothers both seem to be calling it at least a mid-term bear. I may have been stopped out because I keep my stops to close. All those stocks look fairly good still on a chart. I am still holding CDIC, PWAV, IRI, and ECSI - all with 50% or better gains. I have three very recent buys (from just two weeks ago or so) all of which are now down painfully. I seldom set my stop until after the first week of trading - dumb! Any more down movement and I'll sell! But what to do at this point?
I have gone short with HILL and added one more long AUO. Both are TC2000 selections. I suspect I would like to go with more shorts. The problem is most of my available cash is in IRA accounts where you can't do shorts. I am looking at the following shorts - CECO, DLTR, PDCO, MXIM, BMY (Tom's idea here would be welcome), and UDI. I have limited funds for shorting, any suggestions you guys have would be gretaly appreciated.

Thursday, February 05, 2004
 
Thanks Andy, I think that for one day it didn't work or something. BPA was down today. I think it would be easy to develop a ricin antitoxin. Get some horses and give them increasingly higher doses of ricin and then harvest their serum (you don't kill them but just keep on getting the antibodies). This is not unlike the way they make tetnus antitoxin. One of my classmates did this for years. When he started he killed most of the horses on his first try. Boy, were they pissed at him. He found out that you have to support their liver with molasses while you are stressing them with the toxin or the liver goes boom.

Wednesday, February 04, 2004
 
Pre-Market

Nasdaq after hours quotes / pre-market quotes...
 
The CEO of Biosante (BPA) was on Kudlow and Cramer tonight. The anthrax vaccine is supposed to be oral not intranasal. And, interesting on the ricin vaccine (actually a toxoid, I think), all they have to do is come up with a vaccine (easy part, he even says so) and the govt is going to fund the costs of testing and development. WOW! The last time they did this we got the swine flu vaccine. But, BPA should clean up. What do you suppose is their government "in"?
 
When I was a kid, I wanted to change my name to Joe, but after growing up a little bit, I have decided on changing it to Tom! Ha Ha...
I try to not watch all of the stocks that I once liked or owned so I don't beat myself up! Have yet to do a short.
 
Today is not only a bad day for the market, but we have lost some valuble tools. Thompson no longer has a web site. They are only available through AOL and Kiplingers, but a limited amount of information. No more I watch to see what the institutions are doing. Also the NASDAQ site has stopped giving pre and post market trades for non NASDAQ stocks. I guess when they saw our trading prowess they dediced to hinder our ability to compete. Can you get some of this from Scottrade?
Feb is a good time for some of Bert's shorts and puts, what do you say Bert?

Tuesday, February 03, 2004
 
Actually for ricin it would be a toxoid, I think, not a vaccine, at least techniclly speaking. I will try to find out. I am not sure this will be a very easy thing to do, but I can see the govenment shoveling a lot of dollars their way to try.
 
Andy, I have been semi day trading a thousand shares of SGI, buying as much (in points not cash or shares) under 3 as I can and selling as much over 3 as I can and have made about $700 after commissions in the last few weeks on it. Many thanks!!
Remember my noting a couple of weeks ago that a teeny bio company Biosante (BPA) had massive insider buying (picked it up on the Reuters screen). Something like 130000 shares bought by insiders in one day? I thought at the time it was their intranasal vaccine for anthrax that had finally popped. But today it came out, they are making a vaccine for ricin for the military! It is up almost 13% just today alone. Those insiders really know. I wish I could tell you that I had the balls to have followed my own discovery and bought it, but I didn't.
 
Every time Tom comments on something he likes, I do something rash! Bought CVM today. The chart looked pretty good. At $1.37, a stop at $1.00 means I'll have a near 40% loss. However, the up side looks to be a 1 - 3,00 percent, depending on an advance to the 2003, 2002, or 2001 highs of around $10, $20, and $30+.
In adition, I am short HILL of the Worden Reprt around $14.

Monday, February 02, 2004
 
Does everyone save all of the reports they get in the mail from the stocks you own?
 
Did anyone stay in SGI? It is still going. I am sure glad I recommended it but didn't ever buy it. I am looking at CVM currently.

 

 
   
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